Kenya aspires to achieve middle-income status, largely due to the rapid growth of its middle class. This development marks a significant shift from the post-independence focus on waged employment in the civil service, which was the dominant source of livelihood in the 1960s.
The first indicators of an emerging middle class were visible in the 1970s, with increased car ownership in urban areas, especially Nairobi. Another notable shift was the growing participation of women in the urban workforce, which reached 4.5% by 1979. This marked a departure from the colonial era when urban labor primarily relied on men from rural areas. At the time, urban women were marginalized and often forced into informal activities such as illegal brewing and prostitution, concentrated in areas referred to as “native prefabs.”
After independence, elite entitlement characterized Kenya’s workforce. Those with Western education expected to amass wealth through civil service employment. However, with expanded enrollment in local universities during the 1970s to 1990s, formal employment began absorbing a new generation of educated Kenyans. Nonetheless, access to higher education remained limited, pushing many to entrepreneurship as waged labor opportunities declined due to economic stagnation in the 1990s.
In recent years, rising commodity prices have significantly strained Kenya’s middle class, exacerbating the cost of living. As the primary consumers of goods and services, especially in urban areas, the middle class has borne the brunt of inflation. President William Ruto’s consumer-focused policies have sparked concerns about pushing segments of the middle class into poverty. A decline in their spending power could lead to an increase in urban working poor, which might trigger a rise in social issues, including crime.
The middle class also drives substantial revenue through taxation due to their consumption patterns and demand for luxury commodities. Therefore, their decline would have adverse ripple effects on Kenya’s economy.
The 2000s highlighted the adaptability of Nairobi’s middle class, with many turning to pirated satellite television content to access services at subsidized rates. This phenomenon illustrated the existence of an underground economy catering to middle-class needs and underscored the consumption-driven nature of Kenya’s growth. Similarly, this research aims to examine how the middle class is adapting to high internet costs amidst Kenya’s transition to a digital economy. The monopolization of internet provision by companies like Safaricom is a critical area of focus.
The World Bank has emphasized the need to strengthen the middle class. Kenya made significant strides during President Mwai Kibaki’s tenure, where economic growth led to increased purchasing power and elevated many citizens out of poverty. This study will explore the policies of Kibaki’s administration that enabled this growth and contrast them with subsequent administrations’ actions or inactions.
Between 1980 and 2010, Africa’s middle class grew from 126 million to 350 million people (27% to 34% of the population). However, unlike Asia, where middle-class growth was supported by industrial progress and stable employment, Africa still grapples with unemployment and limited social protection. This study will investigate whether these challenges persist in the post-COVID era and their impact on Kenya’s middle class.
Africa’s political elite have often resisted reforms that would improve citizens’ welfare, fearing erosion of their dominance. However, economic growth has birthed a new middle class of professionals and entrepreneurs seeking political involvement. In Kenya, the middle class’s engagement has evolved from social media activism to street protests, as seen during recent Generation Z demonstrations against higher taxes. This research will examine the growing political participation of Kenya’s middle class amidst shifting economic realities.
John Maina Githinji is a Socio-Economic and Political Analyst
